Detroit Tigers 2009 Wish List: Part 4

Another edition of the Tigers' wish list for 2009:

The Rotation
Thought by many to be a strength coming off of the 2006 World Series run, the starting rotation proved to be the Tigers’ undoing in 2008. It cost the Tigers the division and cost pitching coach Chuck Hernandez his job. Justin Verlander, thought to be the ace of the staff and guaranteed at least 15 wins, struggled throughout the season. JV was hurting, but the rest of the rotation was crippled. Jeremy Bonderman went down with a mysterious injury, Dontrelle Willis lost his command (and possibly his mind along with it), Kenny Rogers continued to show his age, and Nate Robertson was well…Nate Robertson. Armando Galarraga was the lone bright spot. Coming out of nowhere to become the best pitcher on the staff. For next year, I am penciling in Verlander, Bonderman, and Galarraga as locks to make the rotation. The rest of this post will deal with the other two spots.

In House:
The Tigers have plenty of options in house, but many of them are just not every good. One quick note on Bonderman, I have him in the rotation on the assumption that he is healthy for the start of Spring Training. If this is not the case, I have no problem with the Tigers looking at other options for that spot. Anyway, on to the other options. Nate Robertson is a fan favorite and is personally a guy that I would really like to see succeed…but I just don’t see it happening. Robertson does not have the kind of consistent stuff to get Major League hitters out every fifth day. I’m sure that Dave Dombrowski has considered shopping Robertson, but he just doesn’t have a whole lot of value on the trade market. I think it would be best for both parties if Robertson was traded, but unless Robertson can be a throw-in in a larger deal, there is a very good chance that he will be back with the Tigers next season. Either way, I don’t think that Robertson will be able to stick in the rotation. Kenny Rogers is another holdover from 2006 who had a very disappointing 2008. Rogers is a free agent this season and the Tigers could probably re-sign him on the cheap, but I am hoping that Dombrowski just lets him walk. All in all, The Gambler has been solid for the Tigers, but he has reached a point in his career where he is just not capable of doing his job well enough to warrant a spot in a Major League rotation. Dontrelle Willis would have been a great story, but at this point, he barely deserves a mention in the post. Yes, he had Cy Young stuff in the past, but when you are walking upwards of 5 batters per 9 innings, it doesn’t matter how good your stuff is, you’re just not going to succeed. If Dontrelle can straighten his control out, he is definitely in the mix for a rotation spot, but I am not going to count on that happening. For now, I have him penciled in as the ace of the Toledo Mudhens. To me, the most interesting pitcher from the Tigers rotation last year is Zach Miner. Early in the season, he worked out of the bullpen and showed a fastball in the mid-to-high 90’s, something that he hadn’t shown before. He was fairly successful in a setup role, but was even more successful when he transitioned to starting. Part of me thinks that Miner would be more valuable to the Tigers coming out of the pen, but part of me would really like to see what he can do if given the opportunity to start the season as a starter. I could go either way on Miner, but no matter where he is, I think he will be very effective for the Tigers in 2009. Freddy Garcia showed some promise as a late season addition, but when you have been out of the league for over a year, it’s not surprising that hitters were having some trouble figuring him out. Garcia is a free agent and has the potential to be solid for the Tigers if they choose to re-sign him, but like Willis, I am not counting on him to do anything. There are a few pitching prospects in the Tigers’ system with some promise, most notably Rick Porcello, but I don’t see any of them being an immediate factor in the 2009 rotation.

On the Market:
There are a myriad of starters on the free agent market, but a few in particular that I would like to see the Tigers investigate. Obviously, if the Tigers can get in the running for CC Sabathia, he would be a fantastic addition to the rotation, but I think his lawyers might already be negotiating his $200 million contract with the Yankees. Oliver Perez is a longshot, but it would be phenomenal if Dombrowski could lure him to Detroit. Perez is only 27 and seems to have overcome his control issues for good. If he chooses to opt out of his contract, and he almost certainly will, AJ Burnett would also be a target for the Tigers. Burnett has proved time and again that he has the stuff of an ace, but has also proved that he has the durability of an 85 year-old. If Mike Illitch is willing to put up the cash, I think that Burnett is a risk worth taking, but if not, I would completely understand. Along the same lines, Ben Sheets would be a great fit for the Tigers, but there is substantial injury risk. Sheets has Cy Young stuff when healthy and if I were running the show, he would be my top target this offseason. The Tigers have a realistic shot at getting him and he could really help to take pressure off of Justin Verlander at the top of the rotation. There are some solid veterans that could interest the Tigers (Paul Byrd, Derek Lowe, Ryan Dempster, etc.) but I don’t think that Dombrowski will make the mistake of overpaying for any of these guys. The one player that seems to be flying under the radar is Sergio Mitre. He was highly regarded coming up through the Marlins system, but has been cast off after undergoing Tommy John surgery. There is certainly a high risk of failure with Mitre, but considering that he will come on the cheap, there’s no harm in signing him to a one-year deal and seeing what he can do in the Spring.

Let's Make a Deal:
Again, the Tigers just don’t have enough in their farm system to make a big deal, especially for starting pitching. Established starting pitchers tend to command inflated prices on the trade market and I would rather see the Tigers stand pat then deplete their farm system further to trade for a starter. Unless a great, unforeseen deal comes along at the Winter Meetings, I think that the Tigers will have to address the starting rotation mostly through free agency.

Pie in the Sky:
The Tigers sign Oliver Perez and Ben Sheets to fill out the starting rotation. Jeremy Bonderman comes back healthy, Verlander regains his form from ’06-07, and Armando Galarraga continues his improbably rise to dominance.

Down to Earth:
The Tigers sign Sheets and Zach Miner steps in the fill the 5th spot in the rotation. Bonderman struggles to come back from inury, Galarraga comes back down to earth, and Verlander wins 14 games…but loses 13.

Final Word:
I think that it is an absolute necessity for the Tigers to sign Sheets, Perez or Burnett. Assuming that they are able to get one of those three, Zach Miner is ready to step in to the fifth spot, but also ready to step into the bullpen if Willis is able to turn it around. Bonderman will get healthy, Galarraga will be solid and Verlander will show that he really is an ace in the making. Here is what I think the rotation will ultimately look like for 2009:

1. Ben Sheets
2. Justin Verlander
3. Jeremy Bonderman
4. Armando Galarraga
5. Zach Miner

On Deck: The Bullpen