Detroit Tigers 2009 Wish List: Part 5

To finish up the Detroit Tigers’ shopping list, we consider the situation in the bullpen:

Bullpen
Personally, I would give the lack of starting pitching the most blame for the 2008 debacle, but the bullpen certainly deserves its fair share. Coming off of last year’s seemingly successful off-season, the one area that the fans and pundits were still critical of was the Tigers’ bullpen. Dave Dombrowski chose to stick with what he had and count on Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya to regain their 2006 form, rather than chase after free agent relievers. In retrospect, it looks like Dombrowski was crazy, but I really do see why he did what he did. More than any other position in sports, relief pitcher is an absolute crapshoot. It is incredibly hard to determine what a reliever will do from year to year. I mean, if these guys were consistently good pitchers, they would be starting or closing (which I will address later). So I understand why Dombrowski chose not to waste prospects and money chasing after guys who might not pan out. But it has become plainly obvious that the game has changed and a great bullpen is an absolute necessity for a team that wants to make a World Series run. Needless to say, standing pat will not be acceptable in this off-season.

In House:
The usual suspects here are obviously Zumaya and Rodney. Both have electric stuff, but both have trouble staying on the field. Both can dominate, but both also struggle to throw strikes consistently. Both were brilliant and 2006, but both were awful in 2007. All that said, Zumaya and Rodney still have terrific arms and certainly deserve a shot to earn their place in the Tiger’s pen. Beyond that, it’s wide open. The Tigers have a few lefties (Casey Fossum, Macay McBride, Bobby Seay) and a few righties (Aquilino Lopez, Gary Glover, Virgil Vasquez) that are really nothing special. Out of these, only Seay is a guy that I would really like to see back on the team next year. Kyle Farnsworth is a free agent, but I really don’t foresee him wanting to come back to Detroit, so I think it would be best for the Tigers to let him walk. Beyond Rodney and Zumaya, there is really only one pitcher from the 2007 version of the Tigers’ bullpen that I would like to see come back. Freddy Dolsi. Dude has the potential to be lights out. This might not be the best comparison, because I will advise against going after this player in the next paragraph, but Dolsi reminds me of Frankie Rodriguez. He wants the ball in big situations and he usually delivers in those situations. Dolsi handed out too many free passes last season, but once he starts to harness his electric stuff, those walks will start to turn into strikeouts. One important stat to consider with Dolsi, right-hander batters hit only .215 against him last season. If Dolsi can cut down on the walks, and I believe that he can, he will be a lights-out setup man for the Tigers next season.

On the Market:
First of all, let me say that I was elated to hear Dave Dombrowski say that the Tigers would not pursue Frankie Rodriguez in free agency. Closer is by far the most overrated position in baseball and saves are by far the most overhyped stat. Anybody who plays fantasy baseball knows, closers are a dime a dozen, so there is no need to shell out millions of dollars for a guy because he racked up a few saves. Do you need somebody with good stuff to shut the door in the 9th? Definitely. But that doesn’t make it necessary to break the bank. Rodriguez, Jason Isringhausen, and Brian Fuentes lead the list of free agent closers, but I would not recommend that the Tigers pursue any of these players. As much as Tiger fans hated Todd Jones, The Rollercoaster was a perfect closer. He had the mental stability to get the final three outs, and opened the door for Joel Zumaya to play the most important role in the bullpen: Fireman. One of the reasons that Tigers’ bullpen was so great in 2006 was that their best pitcher, Zumaya, was not stuck in the 9th inning. Jim Leyland was free to use him the situations where he needed his best reliever. I will save my rant on the stupidity of bullpen management for another time, but suffice it to say that I don’t think the best pitcher in the bullpen should not be the closer. Given that, I have a list of non-closers that I think would fit well in the Tigers’ pen next season: Juan Cruz is a flamethrower who has posted a K/9’s above 12 in the past two seasons. A great reliever has to be able to get a strikeout in a tight situation and Cruz can most certainly do that. Cruz should be the Tigers’ #1 target. After Cruz, Guillermo Mota, Dennys Reyes, and Bobby Howry are solid options, but I would rather that that Tigers didn’t overpay for any relievers other than Cruz.

Let's Make a Deal:
I really don’t advocate trading for relievers, given that their skills tend to fluctuate so much from year to year. There might be some low-level deals available, but the Tigers shouldn’t pursue anything major.

Pie in the Sky:
Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney return to form, Freddy Dolsi makes the leap to stardom, and the Tigers sign Juan Cruz.

Down to Earth:
Zumaya and Rodney are occasionally effective, Dolsi is better, but still erratic, and the Tigers overpay for a few veteran relievers to fill out the ranks.

Final Word:
Here’s what the Tigers need to do. Build a bullpen full of as many good arms as possible, let the pitchers earn their roles. Make no promises, give everybody a shot in Spring Training, and let the chips fall where they may. Not everybody is going to pan out, but all Dombrowski can do is line up the best collection of talent that he can and hope that he guesses right enough for his bullpen to be successful. There is no established closer on my list, so at this point, I am going to consider the Tigers a closer-by-committee team, which I think would serve them best. Here’s where I hope the bullpen ends up:

MR: Aquilino Lopez
MR: Clay Rapada
MR: Bobby Seay
SU: Freddy Dolsi
SU/CL: Fernando Rodney
SU/CL: Joel Zumaya
SU/CL: Juan Cruz