Showing posts with label Justin Verlander. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Justin Verlander. Show all posts
Monday, April 27, 2009
I totally called it
How about the 'Stang? 7 strong with 9K's? Not too shabby. Mustang had it all working tonight. Fastball in the upper 90's (he touched 99 at least 5 times) and a knee-buckling curveball. This is hopefully what the Tigers are going to get from him for the rest of the year. Yea, I don't really have a whole lot to say, just that I TOTALLY CALLED IT!
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Why I'm not worried about Justin Verlander
Quick Note: I'm pretty sure I'm wasting my time because nobody reads this fella anyway, but I am going to write more often. I promise. Pete will write more too. Right Pete? Also, we might rename the blog, but that probably won't happen anytime soon. Ok, on to the delicious content...
First of all, Justin Verlander needs a nickname. Power pitchers are not great until they are referred to as "The Rocket" or "The Express", and at this point, all Verlander has is JV, which is a pitiful intersection of unoriginality and general teribbleness (which Firefox kindly just told me isn't a word, but I'm going to keep it in here anyway). The point is, we Tiger fans can no longer go on referring to our ace by the same initials that we use to categorize 5'2" unathletic 15 year-olds. My idea: "Mustang". I know it's not great and I welcome any suggestions, but the basic idea is that a power pitcher in the city that created the American muscle car had better have an nickname that can burn up a set of steel-belted radials. Mustang captures this and also has the added bonus of being easliy shortened to 'Stang, and it's always nice to have a one-syllable nickname option. For the record, the rest of my top 5 was "The Vette", "Camaro", "Model V", and "GT". From now on I will refer to Mr. Verlander as Mustang in this space.
The Mustang hasn't exactly sprinted out of the starting gate this year, as evidenced by his not-so-stellar 9.00 ERA and 1.71 WHIP through three starts. These numbers paint a pretty terrible picture, but there are certainly some mitigating circumstances. Last night, Kendry Morales' 3-run homer never would have happened, but Ryan Raburn horribly misplayed a routine line drive a couple of batters earlier. Even then, Raburn's misplay was scored as a hit, and Verlander was charged with 3 earned runs in the inning. Overall, the Tigers have played poor defense behind Verlander, leading to his bloated ERA. Look at his periferals, 10.71 K/9, 2.73 K/BB. This guy is missing bats and pounding the strike zone at the best rates of his career. His opposing BABIP is an absurd .387, which is nearly 100 points higher than his career average. Over the course of the season, it's going to even out.
But for the most convincing argument in favor of a Verlander comeback, just watch the dude pitch. Last night, Rod Allen was mistifyed by how well opposing hitters were doing against the "stuff that Verlander was featuring" and rightly so. Mustang's fastball was consistently in the 93-95 mph range, and he touched 96-97 mph when he needed it. Uncle Charlie was definitely in the house, especially for one knee-buckling strikeout that made Torii Hunter look like a young Carlos Pena. I know it sounds crazy to say that the starter in a 12-10 game pitched well, but Mustang really did.
Anyway, I'm not worried. This is not a Chien-Ming Wang situation in which a pitcher just loses his stuff, Verlander has simply been unlucky. 'Stang is ready to be an ace, believe it.
First of all, Justin Verlander needs a nickname. Power pitchers are not great until they are referred to as "The Rocket" or "The Express", and at this point, all Verlander has is JV, which is a pitiful intersection of unoriginality and general teribbleness (which Firefox kindly just told me isn't a word, but I'm going to keep it in here anyway). The point is, we Tiger fans can no longer go on referring to our ace by the same initials that we use to categorize 5'2" unathletic 15 year-olds. My idea: "Mustang". I know it's not great and I welcome any suggestions, but the basic idea is that a power pitcher in the city that created the American muscle car had better have an nickname that can burn up a set of steel-belted radials. Mustang captures this and also has the added bonus of being easliy shortened to 'Stang, and it's always nice to have a one-syllable nickname option. For the record, the rest of my top 5 was "The Vette", "Camaro", "Model V", and "GT". From now on I will refer to Mr. Verlander as Mustang in this space.
The Mustang hasn't exactly sprinted out of the starting gate this year, as evidenced by his not-so-stellar 9.00 ERA and 1.71 WHIP through three starts. These numbers paint a pretty terrible picture, but there are certainly some mitigating circumstances. Last night, Kendry Morales' 3-run homer never would have happened, but Ryan Raburn horribly misplayed a routine line drive a couple of batters earlier. Even then, Raburn's misplay was scored as a hit, and Verlander was charged with 3 earned runs in the inning. Overall, the Tigers have played poor defense behind Verlander, leading to his bloated ERA. Look at his periferals, 10.71 K/9, 2.73 K/BB. This guy is missing bats and pounding the strike zone at the best rates of his career. His opposing BABIP is an absurd .387, which is nearly 100 points higher than his career average. Over the course of the season, it's going to even out.
But for the most convincing argument in favor of a Verlander comeback, just watch the dude pitch. Last night, Rod Allen was mistifyed by how well opposing hitters were doing against the "stuff that Verlander was featuring" and rightly so. Mustang's fastball was consistently in the 93-95 mph range, and he touched 96-97 mph when he needed it. Uncle Charlie was definitely in the house, especially for one knee-buckling strikeout that made Torii Hunter look like a young Carlos Pena. I know it sounds crazy to say that the starter in a 12-10 game pitched well, but Mustang really did.
Anyway, I'm not worried. This is not a Chien-Ming Wang situation in which a pitcher just loses his stuff, Verlander has simply been unlucky. 'Stang is ready to be an ace, believe it.
Monday, January 26, 2009
Sign Ben Sheets
Last week, Jim Leyland announced the Tigers’ starting rotation: Justin Verlander, Armando Galarraga, Edwin Jackson, Jeremy Bonderman, and either Nate Robertson, Zach Miner, or Dontrelle Willis. In simple terms, the Tigers’ current 2009 rotation consists of a solid young pitcher, a ground bal machine, a Rick Vaughn-esque talent with crappy control, a first inning nightmare/injury risk, and one hell of a question mark. Do you know what’s missing from that list? An ace. I, along with every other diehard Tigers fan hope and pray that Justin Verlander will turn into the anchor that stabilizes the Detroit rotation for the next 10 years, but based on what happened last season, that is far from guaranteed. At this point, it is certainly not a stretch to say that Detroit has the worst rotation in the Central division. The offense will be strong again and the bullpen will be improved, but the Tigers are not winning the Central if their starters don’t carry their weight.
I read a great piece today on espn.com in which Buster Olney talks about how the economy has hurt the value of pitchers like Ben Sheets. Three years ago, Sheets would probably have already signed a 4-year $60 million contract with somebody, but this year, he is left teamless going into February. The only team that is taking a hard looks at signing Sheets is the chronically pitching-starved Texas Rangers, who have made a 2-year $16 million offer. Pardon my crass language, but are you fucking kidding me? I understand that Sheets is an injury risk, but when A.J. Burnett, who has the pain threshold of a teething infant, gets $84 million, Sheets is certainly worth more than $16 million. That said, his worth is whatever that market says it is and the Tigers need to take advantage. Sheets’ agent is probably too smart to allow his client to be locked in at a discount for any more than 2 years, but even so, this is a move that Dave Dombrowski needs to make. I don’t think he will make it, and I completely understand his rationale for doing so, but I must disagree with it.
Sheets will not be a Tiger because he is a type-A free agent, which means that the team who signs him must hand over a first or second round draft pick to his former team, in the case, the Milwaukee Brewers. An argument can be made that a first round pick is more valuable for the Tigers than an injury-prone ace, as the Detroit farm system is in dire need to replenishing and Dave Dombrowski has a long and distinguished draft record. For the future, the better move is pass on Mr. Sheets, but looking at how the America League Central division lays out for 2009, it’s anybody’s game. The White Sox, Twins, Indians, and Tigers are all bunched at the top and adding a proven ace like Sheets could be the additional push that catapults Detroit to a division title. Generally, I am always in favor of what’s best for the future, but with a team with key players that only have a few years left (Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen), you can’t walk away from a move that could win you the division and get your team into the playoffs where as the Phillies and Rays showed last season, anything can happen.
I read a great piece today on espn.com in which Buster Olney talks about how the economy has hurt the value of pitchers like Ben Sheets. Three years ago, Sheets would probably have already signed a 4-year $60 million contract with somebody, but this year, he is left teamless going into February. The only team that is taking a hard looks at signing Sheets is the chronically pitching-starved Texas Rangers, who have made a 2-year $16 million offer. Pardon my crass language, but are you fucking kidding me? I understand that Sheets is an injury risk, but when A.J. Burnett, who has the pain threshold of a teething infant, gets $84 million, Sheets is certainly worth more than $16 million. That said, his worth is whatever that market says it is and the Tigers need to take advantage. Sheets’ agent is probably too smart to allow his client to be locked in at a discount for any more than 2 years, but even so, this is a move that Dave Dombrowski needs to make. I don’t think he will make it, and I completely understand his rationale for doing so, but I must disagree with it.
Sheets will not be a Tiger because he is a type-A free agent, which means that the team who signs him must hand over a first or second round draft pick to his former team, in the case, the Milwaukee Brewers. An argument can be made that a first round pick is more valuable for the Tigers than an injury-prone ace, as the Detroit farm system is in dire need to replenishing and Dave Dombrowski has a long and distinguished draft record. For the future, the better move is pass on Mr. Sheets, but looking at how the America League Central division lays out for 2009, it’s anybody’s game. The White Sox, Twins, Indians, and Tigers are all bunched at the top and adding a proven ace like Sheets could be the additional push that catapults Detroit to a division title. Generally, I am always in favor of what’s best for the future, but with a team with key players that only have a few years left (Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen), you can’t walk away from a move that could win you the division and get your team into the playoffs where as the Phillies and Rays showed last season, anything can happen.
Monday, October 20, 2008
Detroit Tigers 2009 Wish List: Part 4
Another edition of the Tigers' wish list for 2009:
The Rotation
Thought by many to be a strength coming off of the 2006 World Series run, the starting rotation proved to be the Tigers’ undoing in 2008. It cost the Tigers the division and cost pitching coach Chuck Hernandez his job. Justin Verlander, thought to be the ace of the staff and guaranteed at least 15 wins, struggled throughout the season. JV was hurting, but the rest of the rotation was crippled. Jeremy Bonderman went down with a mysterious injury, Dontrelle Willis lost his command (and possibly his mind along with it), Kenny Rogers continued to show his age, and Nate Robertson was well…Nate Robertson. Armando Galarraga was the lone bright spot. Coming out of nowhere to become the best pitcher on the staff. For next year, I am penciling in Verlander, Bonderman, and Galarraga as locks to make the rotation. The rest of this post will deal with the other two spots.
In House:
The Tigers have plenty of options in house, but many of them are just not every good. One quick note on Bonderman, I have him in the rotation on the assumption that he is healthy for the start of Spring Training. If this is not the case, I have no problem with the Tigers looking at other options for that spot. Anyway, on to the other options. Nate Robertson is a fan favorite and is personally a guy that I would really like to see succeed…but I just don’t see it happening. Robertson does not have the kind of consistent stuff to get Major League hitters out every fifth day. I’m sure that Dave Dombrowski has considered shopping Robertson, but he just doesn’t have a whole lot of value on the trade market. I think it would be best for both parties if Robertson was traded, but unless Robertson can be a throw-in in a larger deal, there is a very good chance that he will be back with the Tigers next season. Either way, I don’t think that Robertson will be able to stick in the rotation. Kenny Rogers is another holdover from 2006 who had a very disappointing 2008. Rogers is a free agent this season and the Tigers could probably re-sign him on the cheap, but I am hoping that Dombrowski just lets him walk. All in all, The Gambler has been solid for the Tigers, but he has reached a point in his career where he is just not capable of doing his job well enough to warrant a spot in a Major League rotation. Dontrelle Willis would have been a great story, but at this point, he barely deserves a mention in the post. Yes, he had Cy Young stuff in the past, but when you are walking upwards of 5 batters per 9 innings, it doesn’t matter how good your stuff is, you’re just not going to succeed. If Dontrelle can straighten his control out, he is definitely in the mix for a rotation spot, but I am not going to count on that happening. For now, I have him penciled in as the ace of the Toledo Mudhens. To me, the most interesting pitcher from the Tigers rotation last year is Zach Miner. Early in the season, he worked out of the bullpen and showed a fastball in the mid-to-high 90’s, something that he hadn’t shown before. He was fairly successful in a setup role, but was even more successful when he transitioned to starting. Part of me thinks that Miner would be more valuable to the Tigers coming out of the pen, but part of me would really like to see what he can do if given the opportunity to start the season as a starter. I could go either way on Miner, but no matter where he is, I think he will be very effective for the Tigers in 2009. Freddy Garcia showed some promise as a late season addition, but when you have been out of the league for over a year, it’s not surprising that hitters were having some trouble figuring him out. Garcia is a free agent and has the potential to be solid for the Tigers if they choose to re-sign him, but like Willis, I am not counting on him to do anything. There are a few pitching prospects in the Tigers’ system with some promise, most notably Rick Porcello, but I don’t see any of them being an immediate factor in the 2009 rotation.
On the Market:
There are a myriad of starters on the free agent market, but a few in particular that I would like to see the Tigers investigate. Obviously, if the Tigers can get in the running for CC Sabathia, he would be a fantastic addition to the rotation, but I think his lawyers might already be negotiating his $200 million contract with the Yankees. Oliver Perez is a longshot, but it would be phenomenal if Dombrowski could lure him to Detroit. Perez is only 27 and seems to have overcome his control issues for good. If he chooses to opt out of his contract, and he almost certainly will, AJ Burnett would also be a target for the Tigers. Burnett has proved time and again that he has the stuff of an ace, but has also proved that he has the durability of an 85 year-old. If Mike Illitch is willing to put up the cash, I think that Burnett is a risk worth taking, but if not, I would completely understand. Along the same lines, Ben Sheets would be a great fit for the Tigers, but there is substantial injury risk. Sheets has Cy Young stuff when healthy and if I were running the show, he would be my top target this offseason. The Tigers have a realistic shot at getting him and he could really help to take pressure off of Justin Verlander at the top of the rotation. There are some solid veterans that could interest the Tigers (Paul Byrd, Derek Lowe, Ryan Dempster, etc.) but I don’t think that Dombrowski will make the mistake of overpaying for any of these guys. The one player that seems to be flying under the radar is Sergio Mitre. He was highly regarded coming up through the Marlins system, but has been cast off after undergoing Tommy John surgery. There is certainly a high risk of failure with Mitre, but considering that he will come on the cheap, there’s no harm in signing him to a one-year deal and seeing what he can do in the Spring.
Let's Make a Deal:
Again, the Tigers just don’t have enough in their farm system to make a big deal, especially for starting pitching. Established starting pitchers tend to command inflated prices on the trade market and I would rather see the Tigers stand pat then deplete their farm system further to trade for a starter. Unless a great, unforeseen deal comes along at the Winter Meetings, I think that the Tigers will have to address the starting rotation mostly through free agency.
Pie in the Sky:
The Tigers sign Oliver Perez and Ben Sheets to fill out the starting rotation. Jeremy Bonderman comes back healthy, Verlander regains his form from ’06-07, and Armando Galarraga continues his improbably rise to dominance.
Down to Earth:
The Tigers sign Sheets and Zach Miner steps in the fill the 5th spot in the rotation. Bonderman struggles to come back from inury, Galarraga comes back down to earth, and Verlander wins 14 games…but loses 13.
Final Word:
I think that it is an absolute necessity for the Tigers to sign Sheets, Perez or Burnett. Assuming that they are able to get one of those three, Zach Miner is ready to step in to the fifth spot, but also ready to step into the bullpen if Willis is able to turn it around. Bonderman will get healthy, Galarraga will be solid and Verlander will show that he really is an ace in the making. Here is what I think the rotation will ultimately look like for 2009:
1. Ben Sheets
2. Justin Verlander
3. Jeremy Bonderman
4. Armando Galarraga
5. Zach Miner
On Deck: The Bullpen
The Rotation
Thought by many to be a strength coming off of the 2006 World Series run, the starting rotation proved to be the Tigers’ undoing in 2008. It cost the Tigers the division and cost pitching coach Chuck Hernandez his job. Justin Verlander, thought to be the ace of the staff and guaranteed at least 15 wins, struggled throughout the season. JV was hurting, but the rest of the rotation was crippled. Jeremy Bonderman went down with a mysterious injury, Dontrelle Willis lost his command (and possibly his mind along with it), Kenny Rogers continued to show his age, and Nate Robertson was well…Nate Robertson. Armando Galarraga was the lone bright spot. Coming out of nowhere to become the best pitcher on the staff. For next year, I am penciling in Verlander, Bonderman, and Galarraga as locks to make the rotation. The rest of this post will deal with the other two spots.
In House:
The Tigers have plenty of options in house, but many of them are just not every good. One quick note on Bonderman, I have him in the rotation on the assumption that he is healthy for the start of Spring Training. If this is not the case, I have no problem with the Tigers looking at other options for that spot. Anyway, on to the other options. Nate Robertson is a fan favorite and is personally a guy that I would really like to see succeed…but I just don’t see it happening. Robertson does not have the kind of consistent stuff to get Major League hitters out every fifth day. I’m sure that Dave Dombrowski has considered shopping Robertson, but he just doesn’t have a whole lot of value on the trade market. I think it would be best for both parties if Robertson was traded, but unless Robertson can be a throw-in in a larger deal, there is a very good chance that he will be back with the Tigers next season. Either way, I don’t think that Robertson will be able to stick in the rotation. Kenny Rogers is another holdover from 2006 who had a very disappointing 2008. Rogers is a free agent this season and the Tigers could probably re-sign him on the cheap, but I am hoping that Dombrowski just lets him walk. All in all, The Gambler has been solid for the Tigers, but he has reached a point in his career where he is just not capable of doing his job well enough to warrant a spot in a Major League rotation. Dontrelle Willis would have been a great story, but at this point, he barely deserves a mention in the post. Yes, he had Cy Young stuff in the past, but when you are walking upwards of 5 batters per 9 innings, it doesn’t matter how good your stuff is, you’re just not going to succeed. If Dontrelle can straighten his control out, he is definitely in the mix for a rotation spot, but I am not going to count on that happening. For now, I have him penciled in as the ace of the Toledo Mudhens. To me, the most interesting pitcher from the Tigers rotation last year is Zach Miner. Early in the season, he worked out of the bullpen and showed a fastball in the mid-to-high 90’s, something that he hadn’t shown before. He was fairly successful in a setup role, but was even more successful when he transitioned to starting. Part of me thinks that Miner would be more valuable to the Tigers coming out of the pen, but part of me would really like to see what he can do if given the opportunity to start the season as a starter. I could go either way on Miner, but no matter where he is, I think he will be very effective for the Tigers in 2009. Freddy Garcia showed some promise as a late season addition, but when you have been out of the league for over a year, it’s not surprising that hitters were having some trouble figuring him out. Garcia is a free agent and has the potential to be solid for the Tigers if they choose to re-sign him, but like Willis, I am not counting on him to do anything. There are a few pitching prospects in the Tigers’ system with some promise, most notably Rick Porcello, but I don’t see any of them being an immediate factor in the 2009 rotation.
On the Market:
There are a myriad of starters on the free agent market, but a few in particular that I would like to see the Tigers investigate. Obviously, if the Tigers can get in the running for CC Sabathia, he would be a fantastic addition to the rotation, but I think his lawyers might already be negotiating his $200 million contract with the Yankees. Oliver Perez is a longshot, but it would be phenomenal if Dombrowski could lure him to Detroit. Perez is only 27 and seems to have overcome his control issues for good. If he chooses to opt out of his contract, and he almost certainly will, AJ Burnett would also be a target for the Tigers. Burnett has proved time and again that he has the stuff of an ace, but has also proved that he has the durability of an 85 year-old. If Mike Illitch is willing to put up the cash, I think that Burnett is a risk worth taking, but if not, I would completely understand. Along the same lines, Ben Sheets would be a great fit for the Tigers, but there is substantial injury risk. Sheets has Cy Young stuff when healthy and if I were running the show, he would be my top target this offseason. The Tigers have a realistic shot at getting him and he could really help to take pressure off of Justin Verlander at the top of the rotation. There are some solid veterans that could interest the Tigers (Paul Byrd, Derek Lowe, Ryan Dempster, etc.) but I don’t think that Dombrowski will make the mistake of overpaying for any of these guys. The one player that seems to be flying under the radar is Sergio Mitre. He was highly regarded coming up through the Marlins system, but has been cast off after undergoing Tommy John surgery. There is certainly a high risk of failure with Mitre, but considering that he will come on the cheap, there’s no harm in signing him to a one-year deal and seeing what he can do in the Spring.
Let's Make a Deal:
Again, the Tigers just don’t have enough in their farm system to make a big deal, especially for starting pitching. Established starting pitchers tend to command inflated prices on the trade market and I would rather see the Tigers stand pat then deplete their farm system further to trade for a starter. Unless a great, unforeseen deal comes along at the Winter Meetings, I think that the Tigers will have to address the starting rotation mostly through free agency.
Pie in the Sky:
The Tigers sign Oliver Perez and Ben Sheets to fill out the starting rotation. Jeremy Bonderman comes back healthy, Verlander regains his form from ’06-07, and Armando Galarraga continues his improbably rise to dominance.
Down to Earth:
The Tigers sign Sheets and Zach Miner steps in the fill the 5th spot in the rotation. Bonderman struggles to come back from inury, Galarraga comes back down to earth, and Verlander wins 14 games…but loses 13.
Final Word:
I think that it is an absolute necessity for the Tigers to sign Sheets, Perez or Burnett. Assuming that they are able to get one of those three, Zach Miner is ready to step in to the fifth spot, but also ready to step into the bullpen if Willis is able to turn it around. Bonderman will get healthy, Galarraga will be solid and Verlander will show that he really is an ace in the making. Here is what I think the rotation will ultimately look like for 2009:
1. Ben Sheets
2. Justin Verlander
3. Jeremy Bonderman
4. Armando Galarraga
5. Zach Miner
On Deck: The Bullpen
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