GAM is the new OPS

At the same time that I decided that Tony Romo is average, I came to the realization that there is one thing and one thing only that separates average NFL quarterbacks from great NFL quarterbacks (it has been a big night for me). It is the ability to not make critical mistakes at crucial times. More than arm strength, accuracy, mobility, or toughness; the ability not to fuck up is what separates the men from the boys. This is what keeps Tony Romo out of the ranks of the elite. The reasoning is very simple. It’s based on the sabermetric philosophy famously described in Moneyball: You only have 27 outs in a baseball game, so it follows that the best players are the ones that make outs at the lowest rate. This doesn’t translate perfectly to football, as football statistics do not explain the game nearly was well as baseball statistics, but the same principle applies. Each offense will get about 60 plays from scrimmage in an average NFL game. You would figure that a quarterback is probably doing pretty well if he can make less than 5 serious mistakes in those 60 plays. These mistakes can be anything from throwing an interception, to taking a sack, to making the wrong audible, to fumbling, to making the wrong read, to missing an open receiver, the list goes on and on. Unfortunately, because the list of game-changing errors is so extensive, it is impossible to measure it without breaking down the tape of every NFL game. Ron Jaworski was not available for comment, so we are going to have to estimate these numbers for now. Let’s just call this estimated statistic “GAM” (Game-Altering Mistakes). Look at the quarterbacks that have won the last 10 Superbowls: John Elway, Kurt Warner, Trent Dilfer, Tom Brady, Brad Johnson, Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, and Eli Manning. Not all of those passers were tops in QB rating or passing yardage in their championship seasons, but I guarantee that all of them would have been top 5 in the category of fewest GAM. Romo has all of the tools to excel as an NFL quarterback, but his penchant for giving games away has him glued firmly to the middle rungs of the quarterback hierarchal ladder. Until he improves in this category, Romo isn’t going anywhere and neither are the Dallas Cowboys. Last night’s win against the Cowboys was a step in the right direction, but this win was due more to the efforts of DeMarcus Ware and Tashard Choice than to the endeavors of Tony Romo. I am not saying that Romo is terrible; all I’m saying is that when measuring by the most important stat in quarterbacking, Tony Romo is probably closer to Kyle Orton than he is to Peyton Manning.