The Martin Mandate: Week 11

Week 10 was again a success for the Martin Mandate, but I must remain humble. As Mr. Costanza says,

"I'm against all "it's me"s. So self-absorbed and egotistical. It's like these hip musicians with their complicated shoes!"

With that in mind, on to the Week 11 pick. The most obvious choice seems to be the red-hot Bengals -9.5 over the hapless Raiders. As much as I would like to go against a team that is starting Bruce Gradkowski at quarterback, I can't go with my gut. Instead, this week's Mandate will be a team going on the road, without its best player, against a division-leading rival facing a must-win game.

This week's Martin Mandate is...

Washington +10.5 over DALLAS

In the absence of Clinton Portis, backup running backs Ladell Betts and Rock Cartwright will get the ground game going and the Redskins will keep it close against the Cowboys. Also, as noted in this blog before, Tony Romo is an average quarterback, and should make enough mistakes to keep the Cowboys from running away and hiding in this one.

Odds and Ends from this Weekend

I’m not generally one to say, “I told you so”, but to the dude who called me an idiot when I wrote that Tony Romo is average and the most important stat in quarterbacking is Game-Altering Mistakes…HAH! Romo proved again this weekend that he is the most overrated player in the NFL because he routinely makes more mistakes than his team can afford. In a year when two rookie quarterbacks have led teams coming off of losing seasons to the playoffs, it’s fitting that Romo’s previously anointed Cowboys will spend the postseason at home. The impromptu trick play to Witten was fantastic, but that moment of quarterbacking brilliance cannot overcome two backbreaking fumbles and a game full of questionable decision-making. Yes, Tony Romo is still a very talented young player, and maybe he will eventually grow out of this turnover-prone phase, but in the meantime, Romo had better home that Jim Johnson and Steve Spangnuolo get head coaching jobs somewhere, because with the way he struggles against their pressure defenses, the Cowboys will never succeed consistently against in the NFC East.

Moving on…

From now on, I am just going to start referring to the Detroit Lions as “Baxter”. Every time that I think they have hit the pinnacle of embarrassment and ridiculousness, they eat a whole wheel of cheese and poop in the refrigerator. Today, the Lions promoted Tom Lewand and Martin Mayhew to President and General Manager, respectively, and in the immortal words of Ron Burgundy, “I’m not even mad, that’s amazing.” It really is nothing short of amazing that this team continues to operate as if it is being run by a blind three-legged dog. I am awestruck at the complete lack of vision, intelligence, common sense, and any other attribute that you might expect to find among the brain trust of a competent professional football organization.

GAM is the new OPS

At the same time that I decided that Tony Romo is average, I came to the realization that there is one thing and one thing only that separates average NFL quarterbacks from great NFL quarterbacks (it has been a big night for me). It is the ability to not make critical mistakes at crucial times. More than arm strength, accuracy, mobility, or toughness; the ability not to fuck up is what separates the men from the boys. This is what keeps Tony Romo out of the ranks of the elite. The reasoning is very simple. It’s based on the sabermetric philosophy famously described in Moneyball: You only have 27 outs in a baseball game, so it follows that the best players are the ones that make outs at the lowest rate. This doesn’t translate perfectly to football, as football statistics do not explain the game nearly was well as baseball statistics, but the same principle applies. Each offense will get about 60 plays from scrimmage in an average NFL game. You would figure that a quarterback is probably doing pretty well if he can make less than 5 serious mistakes in those 60 plays. These mistakes can be anything from throwing an interception, to taking a sack, to making the wrong audible, to fumbling, to making the wrong read, to missing an open receiver, the list goes on and on. Unfortunately, because the list of game-changing errors is so extensive, it is impossible to measure it without breaking down the tape of every NFL game. Ron Jaworski was not available for comment, so we are going to have to estimate these numbers for now. Let’s just call this estimated statistic “GAM” (Game-Altering Mistakes). Look at the quarterbacks that have won the last 10 Superbowls: John Elway, Kurt Warner, Trent Dilfer, Tom Brady, Brad Johnson, Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, and Eli Manning. Not all of those passers were tops in QB rating or passing yardage in their championship seasons, but I guarantee that all of them would have been top 5 in the category of fewest GAM. Romo has all of the tools to excel as an NFL quarterback, but his penchant for giving games away has him glued firmly to the middle rungs of the quarterback hierarchal ladder. Until he improves in this category, Romo isn’t going anywhere and neither are the Dallas Cowboys. Last night’s win against the Cowboys was a step in the right direction, but this win was due more to the efforts of DeMarcus Ware and Tashard Choice than to the endeavors of Tony Romo. I am not saying that Romo is terrible; all I’m saying is that when measuring by the most important stat in quarterbacking, Tony Romo is probably closer to Kyle Orton than he is to Peyton Manning.

Tony Romo is Average

Tony Romo is an average NFL quarterback. I have decided that this fact is unequivocally true. This is a bit of a weird moment for me to realize this, as I watch him lead his Cowboys to a victory over the New York Football Giants on Sunday night. But watching Romo play and considering the talent that he has around him, I have decided that he is what is commonly referred to as a “system quarterback”. He is an average quarterback who is made better by having a terrific offensive line in front of him and all-pro talent flanking him at every skill position. I would argue that Tony Romo currently huddles up with more offensive talent that any other quarterback has in the last 10 years. Terrell Owens, Roy Williams, Patrick Crayton, Jason Witten, and Marion Barber are collectively better than any 3-WR, TE, RB combination in the recent past. Let’s compare Romo to a couple of quarterbacks who have recently had great sets of skill players around them.

In 2004, Peyton Manning came close to matching Romo’s supporting cast. He had Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, Brandon Stokley, and Dallas Clark, but a rookie running back in Joseph Addai. All Manning did that year was toss a record-setting 49 touchdowns and win 13 games before falling in the playoffs to the eventual Superbowl champions. Tom Brady also came close last season, with Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Donte Stallworth, but Laurence Maroney and Benjamin Watson were far from the consistent threats that Barber and Witten are. All Brady did that that bunch was break Manning’s record with 50 scores and lead his team to a 16-0 season and the Superbowl. Where’s Romo’s 50-touchdown season? If two elite quarterbacks can put together record setting seasons with less talent around them, why isn’t Romo doing the same?

The answer is simple: Romo is not an elite quarterback; he is an average quarterback. Just because he makes John Madden soil his pants every time the Cowboys play on Sunday night, it does not mean that he deserves to be mentioned in the same breath with Brady, Manning, or any other elite NFL QB. Sure, he can freelance and make Top 10-worthy plays, but so can Tyler Thigpen. Other than having sex with Jessica Simpson on a regular basis, what does Tony Romo do that the average NFL quarterback isn’t capable of? One-to-one, would you really switch him out with many other quarterbacks in the league? For example, here are five quarterbacks that are generally considered to be at or below the level of Tony Romo that I would rather have running my team this season: Drew Brees, Jay Cutler, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Kurt Warner. If you put Romo on the Saints, Broncos, Giants, Steelers, or Cardinals, do those teams win any more games than they already have? I’m not saying that Romo is terrible; I’m just saying he’s average. In order to be considered above average, I believe that a quarterback needs directly influence more wins than he does losses. So answer this question for me, on just his own merits, has Romo caused the Cowboys to win more often than he has caused them to lose? No. What is holding Mr. Romo back? He is middle of the pack at best in the most important (yet unmeasured) statistic for NFL quarterbacks. More on this tomorrow…