Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Who the fuck is Jonas Hiller?

The Wings and Ducks will begin their Western Conference Semifinal on Friday and as I look over the lineups for both teams, I am left wondering only one thing: Who the fuck is Jonas Hiller? What happened to the days of Mighty Ducks (yes, they were still mighty back then) goaltenders with goofy French-Canadian names? Where are Jean-Sebastien Giguere and Guy Hebert? Seriously though, outside of this Hiller fella, these Ducks look all too familiar. The Niedermayers and their magnificent playoff beards, Getzlaf, Perry, Pronger, and the ageless Teemu Selanne headline for the Ducks, just as the did a few years ago, when the Ducks knocked the Red Wings out of the playoffs. They are feeling great, coming off an upset of the Joe Thornton (hockey's answer to Arod) and playing a team that they have beaten in the past. One might think that these Ducks would be primed to make this upset...

That said, the Ducks are not going to be able to push the Red Wings around like they did the Sharks. The Wings have always been widely considered a finesse team, and they certainly don't drop the gloves as often as some other squads, but that doesn't mean that they aren't tough. Most of the time, the Wings choose not to throw their weight around, because they don't have to. The Wings are the most skilled team in the league and smartly, they play to their strength. But do not confuse skill and speed with a lack of toughness. There is no team with more playoff experience than this Red Wings team, and consequently, no team with more collective mental (and testicular, for that matter) fortitude. This makes me think that this series might be shorter than the experts think. The Red Wings are clearly the more talented team, they know it, and they will act accordingly. There are absolutely no distractions. The Wings are in the familiar role of Stanley Cup favorite, there is no other juggernaut left in the Western Conference, so there is nothing for the Wings to look ahead to, and although the Wings and Ducks have played in the playoffs before, there really isn't much of a rivalry factor in this series.

Although these two organizations (please use the Canadian pronunciation) have battled in the playoffs in the past, the animosity isn't exactly bubbling over. This isn't Wings/Avs in the late 90's. The Ducks have no Claude Lemieux or Patrick Roy to serve as a target for the ire and octopi of Red Wing fans. The Wings/Ducks conflict is simply familiarity, with a light dusting of dislike. Early on, the Ducks will try to escalate the rivalry and turn this series into cage fight, because they know it's the only way they can win. A lesser team might get sucked into a fist fight, but Mike Babcock will not allow his Red Wings to lose their focus. After a tough Game 1, the Wings will establish themselves as the superior team and take control. I see this series turning out just like the '97 Conference Semifinal between the Wings and the then-Mighty Ducks. The Ducks forced three of the four games into overtime, but were still swept. I don't see a sweep coming in this series, but I think Detroit takes out Anaheim in a hard-fought 5 games.

Bring on the Blackhawks.

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

On second thought...

Think about this possible trade:

Team A gives up a 24-year old outfielder who has 20+ homer power, but hasn't yet proven he can hit consistently against big league pitching.

Team B gives up a 25-year old starting pitcher who has high-90's heat with a power breaking ball and won 14 games in the toughest division in the baseball the year before.

Wouldn't this trade be a no-brainer win for Team A?

If you haven't noticed by now, the above hypothetical is the Matt Joyce for Edwin Jackson trade that Dave Dombrowski and the Tigers pulled off this winter. My first reaction to this trade was to mourn the loss of Joyce (and the arrival of Carlos Guillen to leftfield), but I don't think I ever put the acquisition of Jackson into proper perspective. In terms of raw stuff, Jackson at this best is on the level of 'Stang, and the Tigers only gave up an unproven fourth outfielder to get him. Don't get me wrong, young left-handed hitters with Joyce's raw power aren't exactly a dime-a-dozen, but they are certainly easier to find than 25 year-old pitchers with high-90's heat (as I type this, Jackson just hit 97 on the radar gun) and a big league breaking ball who have been successful on the major league level. The real thing that changed my perspective on this trade was the move to acquire Josh Anderson, giving the Tigers another young lefty to play the outfield, albeit with a vastly different skill set, and bringing the E-Jax deal full circle.

The more I see of Jackson, the more I love his makeup almost as much as I love his stuff. He has been excellent so far in his first season as a Tiger, and it doesn't exactly hurt Double D's reputation when Joyce gets off to a 1-10 start in Tampa, although his one hit was a home run. What do you think it would take to get him back in a Tiger uniform....

Good boy, Baxter

Although it's been three days, I still thought should submit my opinion on Baxter's (that's the Lions if you haven't read this before) haul in last weekend's 2009 NFL Draft...

First Pick: Matthew Stafford QB Georgia
As SEC quarterbacks go, he reminds me more of Rex Grossman than Peyton Manning...which is unfortunate. There's no debating that all of the physical tools are there, but Stafford definitely has a little Favre in him, and not the good kind. He knows that he has a cannon and consequently tries to fit the ball into places that he shouldn't. Either way, I can't really argue with the pick, it seems like the Lions coaches really like this kid. I would have rather taken Aaron Curry or Jason Smith this year and then looked to draft Colt McCoy or Dan LeFevour next year, but like it or not, we are stuck with Stafford.

Second Pick: Brandon Pettigrew TE Oklahoma State
I did not see this pick coming at all, but I love it. Pettigrew strikes me as a guy with tremendous talent, but who is drafted later than he should be because of the position that he plays. If Pettigrew turns out to be the blocker and receiver that Mel Kiper says he is, he is going will help out all of the Lions top offensive players. He can help Stafford in pass protection and as an safety blanket on third down (also giving me an excuse to make a Stafford/Linus from The Peanuts joke), he can help Kevin Smith turn 5-yard runs into 15-yard runs by sealing off the edge and opening up the outside, and he can help Calvin Johnson get more one-on-one coverages by occupying the middle of the field and drawing the attention of the opposing teams' safeties. Honestly, I was hoping for Michael Oher with this pick, but from what I have seen and read so far, I am really excited about Pettigrew.

Third Pick: Louis Delmas S Western Michigan
On looks alone, he seems to have some Bob Sanders in him. Jim Schwartz needs a ballhawk on his defense and I think Delmas can be just that. The Lions' secondary was putrid last year, and it needed to be addressed. I have absolutely no problem with the Lions passing on Rey Maualuga. I understand they have a huge need a middle linebacker, but that can be partially covered up by Julian Peterson and Ernie Sims and at the strong-side and weak-side linebacker positions, respectively. The more important thing to consider here Schwartz needs a smart leader (ala Keith Bulluck) to call the signals on his defense, and Maualuga is not that. He is a very instinctive player who plays with fantastic intensity, but he isn't the brightest bulb in the lamp. He scored in the low teens on the Wonderlic, which I understand is only a small part of the evaluation process, but even so is really alarming for a guy who has to run the show for your defense. Maualuga might be the better player, but Delmas is a great fit for Baxter's back four.

Of the Lions' other picks, people tell me that Sammie Lee Hill is going to be a force in the middle of the line, but the one that jumped out at me was Derrick Williams. I think he can contribute as a slot receiver, but even more so in the return game. After Rod and his Shovel completely ignored the return game (I am not exaggerating this, he told his returners to fair catch every punt for fear of penalties or turnovers), it's great to see a defensive who actually recognizes the effect that a great returner can have on field position. What a novel concept! A defensive-minded coach who understands that field position is his most important commodity...Who knew?

Anyway, I'm pleased overall with Baxter's picks. They added some potential stars on offense and some nice depth on defense. The one glaring omission is a top-flite left tackle, but come on, we have Jeff Backus!

Monday, April 27, 2009

I totally called it

How about the 'Stang? 7 strong with 9K's? Not too shabby. Mustang had it all working tonight. Fastball in the upper 90's (he touched 99 at least 5 times) and a knee-buckling curveball. This is hopefully what the Tigers are going to get from him for the rest of the year. Yea, I don't really have a whole lot to say, just that I TOTALLY CALLED IT!

Sunday, April 26, 2009

Jimmy is pleased

I love the way that Jim Leyland is managing the Tigers so far this season. With last year's team, there was really nothing to do but set the lineup and the beginning of the day and hope for a couple of big innings. With a nice mix of power, speed, and average sprinkled throughout this year's everyday lineup, Jim Leyland is managing like a stoner in a 711; there are so many options, why not take advantage of all of them? Hit-and-runs, squeeze bunts, pinch runners; Leyland is happily emptying his bag of tricks on a daily basis. And it's working. The bottom of the Tigers' order is manufacturing runs and providing a perfect complement to the thump at the top of the order. I am certainly a subscriber to sabermetrics and preserving as many outs as possible, but I can still appreciate the stuble excellence of a perfectly executed sacrifice bunt. The Tigers are playing the game the way Leyland wants it to be played and it's led to the best run differential in the division.

Thursday, April 23, 2009

Why I'm not worried about Justin Verlander

Quick Note: I'm pretty sure I'm wasting my time because nobody reads this fella anyway, but I am going to write more often. I promise. Pete will write more too. Right Pete? Also, we might rename the blog, but that probably won't happen anytime soon. Ok, on to the delicious content...

First of all, Justin Verlander needs a nickname. Power pitchers are not great until they are referred to as "The Rocket" or "The Express", and at this point, all Verlander has is JV, which is a pitiful intersection of unoriginality and general teribbleness (which Firefox kindly just told me isn't a word, but I'm going to keep it in here anyway). The point is, we Tiger fans can no longer go on referring to our ace by the same initials that we use to categorize 5'2" unathletic 15 year-olds. My idea: "Mustang". I know it's not great and I welcome any suggestions, but the basic idea is that a power pitcher in the city that created the American muscle car had better have an nickname that can burn up a set of steel-belted radials. Mustang captures this and also has the added bonus of being easliy shortened to 'Stang, and it's always nice to have a one-syllable nickname option. For the record, the rest of my top 5 was "The Vette", "Camaro", "Model V", and "GT". From now on I will refer to Mr. Verlander as Mustang in this space.

The Mustang hasn't exactly sprinted out of the starting gate this year, as evidenced by his not-so-stellar 9.00 ERA and 1.71 WHIP through three starts. These numbers paint a pretty terrible picture, but there are certainly some mitigating circumstances. Last night, Kendry Morales' 3-run homer never would have happened, but Ryan Raburn horribly misplayed a routine line drive a couple of batters earlier. Even then, Raburn's misplay was scored as a hit, and Verlander was charged with 3 earned runs in the inning. Overall, the Tigers have played poor defense behind Verlander, leading to his bloated ERA. Look at his periferals, 10.71 K/9, 2.73 K/BB. This guy is missing bats and pounding the strike zone at the best rates of his career. His opposing BABIP is an absurd .387, which is nearly 100 points higher than his career average. Over the course of the season, it's going to even out.

But for the most convincing argument in favor of a Verlander comeback, just watch the dude pitch. Last night, Rod Allen was mistifyed by how well opposing hitters were doing against the "stuff that Verlander was featuring" and rightly so. Mustang's fastball was consistently in the 93-95 mph range, and he touched 96-97 mph when he needed it. Uncle Charlie was definitely in the house, especially for one knee-buckling strikeout that made Torii Hunter look like a young Carlos Pena. I know it sounds crazy to say that the starter in a 12-10 game pitched well, but Mustang really did.

Anyway, I'm not worried. This is not a Chien-Ming Wang situation in which a pitcher just loses his stuff, Verlander has simply been unlucky. 'Stang is ready to be an ace, believe it.